Statistics Canada has released estimates of crop production in Canada for 2010.
2010 Canada Crop Production Forecast
Estimated decreases in wheat, canola and barley production are primarily due to above average precipitation throughout Western Canada. An estimated increases in soybeans production is due to record levels in Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.
Tags: barley, Canola, crop production, dry beans, dry field peas, flaxseed, grain corn, oats, soybeans, Statistics Canada, wheat
The long-anticipated Statistics Canada report on field crop production that came out on Friday has a lot of questionable numbers. As expected, there’s a big increase in Saskatchewan’s summerfallow acres due to all the land too wet to seed. Stat Can pegs summerfallow at 9.67 million acres, an increase of 5.5 million acres from last year. However, the provincial government has estimated 8 million acres were too wet to seed. On top of that, millions of acres that were seeded have been flooded out. When you compare the Stat Can estimates of seeded acres versus harvested acres, it’s tough to see where all this flooded land has gone. I also think some of the yield estimates are out to lunch. For instance, the Saskatchewan lentil yield is estimated at 1400 pounds an acre. Looking back at data all the way to 1998, that’s the highest lentil yield in all those years. I have a tough time buying that. While big yields are estimated on lentils as well as mustard and canaryseed, yield estimates are down substantially from last year in oats, barley, canola and wheat. After surveying 4,800 Saskatchewan farmers, Stat Can should have accurate production estimates, but I’m not convinced. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, field crop production, financial solutions, lentil, Mustard, oats, precision agronomics, production estimates, Saskatchewan, soil fertility, Statistics Canada, summerfallow, Variable Rate Technology, wheat
Tomorrow, August 20, is going to be a big day for Canadian grain markets. Statistics Canada will be coming out with its estimate of field crop production for each of the grains, oilseeds and specialty crops. This is a bigger deal than usual because there’s so much uncertainty over how much was actually seeded this spring and how much of what was seeded has been flooded out. Stat Can’s estimate of crop area came out on June 23, but it was based on a survey conducted weeks earlier. Producers were unable to seed all the acres they had intended, so the estimates bore little resemblance to reality. On top of that, continuous rains flooded a lot of seeded land and some crops were hit harder than others. On many crops, Western Canadian production has a big impact on prices. Tomorrow’s Stat Can report could be a market mover in canola, oats, flax, lentils, mustard and canaryseed. The price moves could be positive or negative depending upon how the Stat Can numbers vary from trade estimates. With so much uncertainty on seeded acreage, market surprises are much more likely than usual. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: ag products, ag services, agricultural products, agricultural services, Canadian grain markets, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, field crop production, financial solutions, flax, grains, lentils, mustrad, oats, oilseeds, precision agronomics, soil fertility, specialty crops, Statistics Canada, Variable Rate Technology
Oats is an interesting commodity that has seen a number of market changes in recent years. According to a recent report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada is the world’s third largest oat producer and the world’s number one oat exporter. About 95 per cent of our oat exports are to the U.S. market. Starting in 1995, the European Union provided Finland and Sweden with oat export subsidies. When those export subsidies ended in 2006, Finnish and Swedish oat exports to the U.S. were curtailed and Canada captured that business. Within Canada, oat production has become concentrated in the Prairie region, particularly Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The two provinces have market access and transportation advantages to the main U.S. market of Minneapolis. Oats continue to have a prominent place in the milling market for human food uses, but many U.S. horse markets have replaced oats with pelleted corn rations. The Ag Canada analysis says oats will have a difficult time recapturing the horse market. The medium term forecast calls for a continued decline in North American oat acres as producers gravitate to more profitable cropping options. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: Ag Canada, ag products, ag services, agricultural products, agricultural services, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, European Union, fertilizers, financial solutions, oat exports, oats, Prairie region, precision ag, precision agronomics, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology
The difficult growing season in Western Canada has moved many of the grain markets, but wheat, durum and barley prices remain stubbornly depressed. In the latest Pool Return Outlook from the Canadian Wheat Board, new crop wheat with good protein is up a little bit, but durum and barley are unchanged from last month. The CWB points out that the previous two marketing years saw the largest and second largest global production of wheat on record. The 2010-11 marketing year is virtually certain to be the third largest production of all time. Canada is a huge player on the world durum market, but despite our big drop in durum acres, the overall supply of durum is expected to be adequate for the year ahead. Although world stocks are tightening due to our production drop, global values are constrained by an abundance of durum in Europe, along with the depreciation of the euro. It is also EU stocks that are overhanging the designated barley market. So while canola, lentils, canaryseed, oats and even field peas have strengthened in price in recent weeks, there isn’t much good news in the Pool Return Outlook. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canadian Wheat Board, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, CWB, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, field peas, financial solutions, grain markets, lentils, oats, Pool Return Outlook, precision agronomics, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, wheat
With the massive seeding delay, what kind of acreage shifts might there be? Will total seeded acreage in Saskatchewan be down by two million or five million acres? It’s logical to believe there will now be more barley and oats seeded since they require less days to maturity. This may come at the expense of durum and spring wheat. There may be some shift in favour of canola, but you also have to think that canola will be affected a great deal by how many acres don’t get seeded. Canaryseed is an interesting case since Saskatchewan production is the major determining factor for prices. It’s natural for producers to switch to more canaryseed in a late, wet spring and you hear about producers going that route. However, you also hear about producers who are now avoiding canaryseed because the price has dropped all the way down to 13 cents a pound and less. Mustard is a similar situation. It’s relatively short season, but prices are disappointing. Statistics Canada will release an estimate of crop area on June 23. Unfortunately, that survey is done so far in advance of the 23rd that it won’t capture all the last-minute decisions. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: acreage shifts, agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, Mustard, oats, precision agronomics, seeding delay, soil fertility, Spring Wheat, Statistics Canada, Variable Rate Technology
Odds are you don’t know much about Ochratoxin A, but this mycotoxin has big implications for Canadian cereal grains. Ochratoxin A, also called OTA, is produced by a fungus during grain storage. It has long affected many commodities, but more countries are now establishing maximum levels for OTA in grains and in food products. Health Canada is proposing the same thing. Grains like wheat and durum would have a maximum OTA level of 5 parts per billion, while directly consumed grains like oats would be 3 parts per billion. A part per billion is one second in 32years. A part per billion is also the equivalent of a single one inch slice of pepperoni on a pizza the size of Texas. It’s difficult to sample for OTA in a grain cargo because one fungus infested kernel can be high while the kernel beside it has nothing. Plus, there’s no quick, accurate test and there’s no visual way to gauge OTA. Scientist agree that at high enough levels OTA can cause birth defects, compromise the immune system and that it’s a potential carcinogen. However, at low levels, scientists do not agree on whether it’s a significant threat. There are a lot of unanswered questions on OTA and the pending Health Canada limits could cause headaches for farmers, grain buyers and the processors of our grain. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canadian cereal grains, Health Canada, mycotoxin, oats, Ochratoxin A, OTA
With disappointing prices for cereal grains, many producers in the prime canola growing regions are struggling with whether to tighten their canola rotations. Some producers grow canola every fourth year and that would be in line with recommended agronomic practices. Other producers have a third of their acres in canola each year. Some producers have half of their acres in canola and a few producers actually grow some canola on canola stubble. With canola returns likely to be substantially higher than wheat, barley or oats, there’s a strong incentive to throw agronomic guidelines out the window. As producers tighten their canola rotations, are they flirting with more disease issues? Clubroot in Alberta has been a major scare for the industry. As well, there are worries that more virulent strains of blackleg will be promoted. Canola breeding was able to respond quite quickly with varieties that have resistance to clubroot and so far blackleg resistance has held. Producers who have followed recommended rotational guidelines have watched their neighbours tighten rotations without many adverse effects. Expect more producers to take that path this year. I’m Kevin Hursh.
If you have questions about crop rotation, ask a DynAgra Agronomist for answers. 1-800-941-4811 or visit www.dynagra.com.
Tags: agronomist, barley, blackleg, Canola, cereal grains, clubroot, Dynagra, oats, wheat
The Market Analysis Group of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has come out with acreage and price predictions for the upcoming crop year. On wheat, they’re calling for Canadian acreage to be up marginally, with prices only slightly higher. Durum acres are forecast to be down by 20 per cent, but the expected price increase is only eight per cent. Barley – seeded acres down slightly, with off-board feed barley prices up slightly. The seeded acreage for oats is expected to rise by 25 per cent, while oat prices are forecast to fall by about $10 a tonne. The seeded acreage for canola is up only slightly in the Ag Canada forecast, with an increase expected in the average price. Not surprisingly, flax acres are expected to drop sharply. However, Ag Canada is forecasting a flax price improvement of nearly 30 per cent based on the assumption that EU market access issues will be resolved. On field peas, acres are forecast to be up slightly, with prices down slightly. On lentils, Ag Canada is calling for higher acres, but not nearly as high as what some analysts are predicting. Lentil prices are expected to be significantly lower. On mustard, Ag Canada is calling for acres to increase. This view isn’t shared by some other analysts. Pricewise, Ag Canada says mustard prices will decrease, but remain high by historical standards. On canaryseed, they’re calling for seeded acres to be up with the average price lower. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Ag Canada, Agri-Food Canada, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, durum, EU, flax, Market Analysis Group of Agriculture, Mustard, oats, wheat
What numbers should a producer pencil in for crop prices in the new crop year? Many of the presentations at Crop Production Week will take a stab at answering that question. Greg Kostal of Kostal Ag Consulting in Winnipeg gave a presentation at yesterday’s Canaryseed Commission meeting comparing canaryseed to competing cereals. Kostal actually ran through all the important grains, oilseeds and specialty crops giving his projection for next crop year’s price levels. Spring wheat - $5.25 / bushel. Durum - $5 / bushel. Malting barley - $3.75 / bushel. Oats - $2.75 / bushel. Kostal is predicting both canola and flax to be in the range of $9 a bushel. He has peas at $6 a bushel, lentils at 22 cents a pound, canaryseed at 20 cents and yellow mustard at 26 cents a pound. Most of Kostal’s predictions are similar to current price levels with the exception of lentils. With a prediction of 22 cents, Kostal is expecting a dramatic price decline from the current lofty levels. A hundred things could happen to change the outlook, but the numbers are a good starting point for cropping budgets. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canaryseed Commission, Canola, Crop Production Week, durum, flax, Kostal Ag Consulting, malting barely, oats, Spring Wheat
