The long-anticipated Statistics Canada report on field crop production that came out on Friday has a lot of questionable numbers. As expected, there’s a big increase in Saskatchewan’s summerfallow acres due to all the land too wet to seed. Stat Can pegs summerfallow at 9.67 million acres, an increase of 5.5 million acres from last year. However, the provincial government has estimated 8 million acres were too wet to seed. On top of that, millions of acres that were seeded have been flooded out. When you compare the Stat Can estimates of seeded acres versus harvested acres, it’s tough to see where all this flooded land has gone. I also think some of the yield estimates are out to lunch. For instance, the Saskatchewan lentil yield is estimated at 1400 pounds an acre. Looking back at data all the way to 1998, that’s the highest lentil yield in all those years. I have a tough time buying that. While big yields are estimated on lentils as well as mustard and canaryseed, yield estimates are down substantially from last year in oats, barley, canola and wheat. After surveying 4,800 Saskatchewan farmers, Stat Can should have accurate production estimates, but I’m not convinced. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, field crop production, financial solutions, lentil, Mustard, oats, precision agronomics, production estimates, Saskatchewan, soil fertility, Statistics Canada, summerfallow, Variable Rate Technology, wheat
The PMRA has approved an emergency registration for aerial application of Centurion EC herbicide for control for grassy weeds in broadleaf crops such as canola, flax, field peas, lentils, chickpeas and mustard. The emergency registration for Centurion applies to Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This information came as a note from the Alberta Pulse Growers last week. The emergency registration is just for this year and producers are reminded to follow the prescribed pre-harvest intervals. There are already a few products registered for aerial application for grassy weed control in broadleaf crops – products like Assure 11. However, the industry was concerned that there was limited availability of products to deal with this year’s grassy weed situation. In a normal year, in-crop weed control would be over. This year, with so many crops late and with so many weed control issues, another product that can be used aerially to control wild oats and volunteer cereals increases the options available to producers. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: aerial application, agricultural products, agricultural services, Alberta Pulse Growers, broadleaf crops, Canola, Centurion EC, chickpeas, crop protection, custom application financial solutions, Dynagra, emergency registration, fertilizers, field peas, flax, grassy weeds, lentils, Mustard, precision agronomics, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, volunteer canola, wild oats
Complications from all the wet weather are dominating the inquiries to the Ag Knowledge Centre of the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture. Producers have been asking about nitrogen losses and whether topdressing fertilizer might pay. It’s hard to give a clear cut answer, but cropping specialists are advising producers to scout canola and mustard crops for signs of sulphate deficiency. The symptoms usually appear in patches and include upward cupping of the leaves, yellowing between the veins of the earliest leaves, spindly plants and leaves with reddening or purpling on the underside. The fix is a prompt application of granular ammonium sulphate. More producers than usual are considering the aerial application of herbicides. Because of leaf diseases, producers are asking about mixing in fungicide with their herbicide application. Land rolling of pulses has also been delayed and producers are asking how late they can safely roll without causing yield loss. In some cases, producers are wondering about seeding crops for green feed or late grazing. The Ag Knowledge Centre says that on the forage side, there is growing concern that standing water and high humidity may make it difficult to harvest great-looking hay stands. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: Ag knowledge Centre, agricultural products, agricultural services, Ammonium Sulphate, Canola, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, Fertilizer, fertilizers, financial solutions, herbicides, Mustard, nitrogen losses, precision agronomics, Pulses, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, soil fertility, sulphate deficiency, topdressing, Variable Rate Technology, wet weather, yield loss
With the massive seeding delay, what kind of acreage shifts might there be? Will total seeded acreage in Saskatchewan be down by two million or five million acres? It’s logical to believe there will now be more barley and oats seeded since they require less days to maturity. This may come at the expense of durum and spring wheat. There may be some shift in favour of canola, but you also have to think that canola will be affected a great deal by how many acres don’t get seeded. Canaryseed is an interesting case since Saskatchewan production is the major determining factor for prices. It’s natural for producers to switch to more canaryseed in a late, wet spring and you hear about producers going that route. However, you also hear about producers who are now avoiding canaryseed because the price has dropped all the way down to 13 cents a pound and less. Mustard is a similar situation. It’s relatively short season, but prices are disappointing. Statistics Canada will release an estimate of crop area on June 23. Unfortunately, that survey is done so far in advance of the 23rd that it won’t capture all the last-minute decisions. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: acreage shifts, agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, Mustard, oats, precision agronomics, seeding delay, soil fertility, Spring Wheat, Statistics Canada, Variable Rate Technology
Details of the 2010 Saskatchewan Crop Insurance program have been announced. Some crops are going to enjoy insured price levels that look attractive compared to the market. The insured prices are based on a December estimate. Since then, a number of commodities have softened. On wheat, durum, barley, mustard and field peas, the insured prices are close to current price levels. However, canola has an insured price of $9.07 a bushel, which is a fair bit above the current market. Flax is quite attractive as well at $9.65 a bushel. Canaryseed has a crop insurance price of 19 cents a pound, a cent or two above the current price. On lentils, crop insurance is using a price of 26 cents a pound for large green and 27 cents on reds. Current lentil prices are higher than that, but new crop bids have been well under those levels. Rather than the base price, producers can choose a Variable Price Option or an In-Season Price Option. The Variable Price Option uses a July price forecast and the insured price can increase or decrease by as much as 50 per cent in relation to the base price. The In-Season price option uses a six month average of prices from next September to February. It too can increase or decrease by a maximum of 50 per cent as compared to the base price. In my opinion, the base price has a strong probability of being the highest of the three on the aforementioned canola, flax, canaryseed and lentils. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: barley, canarryseed, durum, field peas, In-Season price option, lentils, Mustard, Saskatchewan Crop Insurance, variable price option, wheat
The Market Analysis Group of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has come out with acreage and price predictions for the upcoming crop year. On wheat, they’re calling for Canadian acreage to be up marginally, with prices only slightly higher. Durum acres are forecast to be down by 20 per cent, but the expected price increase is only eight per cent. Barley – seeded acres down slightly, with off-board feed barley prices up slightly. The seeded acreage for oats is expected to rise by 25 per cent, while oat prices are forecast to fall by about $10 a tonne. The seeded acreage for canola is up only slightly in the Ag Canada forecast, with an increase expected in the average price. Not surprisingly, flax acres are expected to drop sharply. However, Ag Canada is forecasting a flax price improvement of nearly 30 per cent based on the assumption that EU market access issues will be resolved. On field peas, acres are forecast to be up slightly, with prices down slightly. On lentils, Ag Canada is calling for higher acres, but not nearly as high as what some analysts are predicting. Lentil prices are expected to be significantly lower. On mustard, Ag Canada is calling for acres to increase. This view isn’t shared by some other analysts. Pricewise, Ag Canada says mustard prices will decrease, but remain high by historical standards. On canaryseed, they’re calling for seeded acres to be up with the average price lower. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Ag Canada, Agri-Food Canada, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, durum, EU, flax, Market Analysis Group of Agriculture, Mustard, oats, wheat
The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture has come out with its Crop Planning Guides for 2010. Lentils are a shining star in the guides producing a sizable return over and above all the rotational expenses of growing the crop. However, the Ministry is using a price estimate of 30 cents a pound for large green lentils and 28 cents a pound for reds. Those prices are five to 10 cents above the expectations of most analysts. Even if you plug in the lower prices, lentils look pretty good compared to other options. Plus, many producers will be plugging in higher yield expectations than what the guides use. Among the cereal crops, canaryseed outshines wheat, durum and barley. However, if too many acres switch into canaryseed, the assumed new crop price of 20 cents a pound will not be realistic. In the oilseeds, the assumed flax price is $8.76 a bushel, while canola is $9.30. Those are in the general range of what analysts are predicting, but the mustard prices at 25 to 34 cents a pound are five to eight cents higher than what analysts are predicting. Every producer should be doing their own revenue and expense cropping budgets, but it’s always interesting to look at the planning guides. They’re posted on the Ministry’s website. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: barley, Canaryseed, Canola, cereal, Crop Planning Guides, cropping budget, durum, flax, lentils, Mustard, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, wheat
The November estimate of field crop production from Statistics Canada was released on Friday. Here are some of the interesting numbers. The average canola yield in Saskatchewan this year is pegged at 34.8 bushels an acre. The yield difference seems to keep widening between canola and the other two main oilseeds – flax and mustard. The average flax yield was only 23.1 bushels an acre while mustard was 17.7. With the extremely late harvest, it isn’t surprising that winter wheat acreage is down, but the numbers are dramatic. Saskatchewan had 450,000 acres of winter wheat in the fall of 2008. This fall, there’s only 200,000 acres. Across Western Canada, winter wheat acreage has dropped from 1.2 million down to 650,000. The Statistics Canada data breaks down yields by crop subgroups. The yields for large green and red lentils were virtually identical at 1,390 and 1,381 pounds per acre respectively. Small green lentils were quite a bit higher at 1,510. There was a big yield difference between hairless and regular canaryseed. Hairless canaryseed is listed at 932 pounds per acre, with regular at 1,278. Little wonder that most producers still grow the regular canaryseed even though it’s very itchy to deal with. You can find the full production estimate report on the Statistics Canada website. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canaryseed, Canola, flax, lentils, Mustard, Statistics Canada, wheat
There can be a tremendous variation in grain prices from one buyer to another. Late last week I was checking out canaryseed prices. I’d heard that prices had improved to the 20 cent a pound range. While I did talk to a company paying 20 cents, I also talked to another than was still at 17. That three cents a pound or $1.50 per bushel is a big difference. Greg Kostal of Kostal Ag Consulting out of Winnipeg has been reporting a big and sudden price increase in yellow peas. Kostal says prices around $6 a bushel are available and I’ve seen other reports confirming that increase. However, you’ll still see prices listed that are only $4.50 to $5 a bushel, so not all buyers have upped the value. Mustard is another crop with a big price discrepancy. There are websites listing mustard prices of only around 15 cents a pound. However, the major mustard buyers have been paying significantly more. Quoting exact prices can be difficult because of freight differences and quality considerations. However, it pays to shop around and to keep your ear to the ground. It can take a lot of time to keep on top of markets. That’s why an increasing number of producers subscribe to one or more market newsletters. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canaryseed, grain prices, Mustard
