Tomorrow, August 20, is going to be a big day for Canadian grain markets. Statistics Canada will be coming out with its estimate of field crop production for each of the grains, oilseeds and specialty crops. This is a bigger deal than usual because there’s so much uncertainty over how much was actually seeded this spring and how much of what was seeded has been flooded out. Stat Can’s estimate of crop area came out on June 23, but it was based on a survey conducted weeks earlier. Producers were unable to seed all the acres they had intended, so the estimates bore little resemblance to reality. On top of that, continuous rains flooded a lot of seeded land and some crops were hit harder than others. On many crops, Western Canadian production has a big impact on prices. Tomorrow’s Stat Can report could be a market mover in canola, oats, flax, lentils, mustard and canaryseed. The price moves could be positive or negative depending upon how the Stat Can numbers vary from trade estimates. With so much uncertainty on seeded acreage, market surprises are much more likely than usual. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: ag products, ag services, agricultural products, agricultural services, Canadian grain markets, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, field crop production, financial solutions, flax, grains, lentils, mustrad, oats, oilseeds, precision agronomics, soil fertility, specialty crops, Statistics Canada, Variable Rate Technology
It’s a great year for winter cereals, not such a great year for canola, flax and canaryseed. The crop condition ratings in this week’s crop report from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture show that winter wheat and fall rye and looking great. Winter wheat is rated as 33 per cent excellent and 50 per cent good. Only 3 per cent is poor. By contrast, 23 per cent of the canola in the province is rated as fair, 13 per cent is rated as poor and 3 per cent is very poor. Canola is the crop with the lowest ratings, but it’s followed closely by flax, canaryseed and barley. The crop report also provides ratings for each region of the province. The northwestern region of the grain belt has the best crops overall. Canola is particularly strong in the northwest. The poorest crop ratings are in the northeastern grain belt. In that region, only one per cent of the canola is rated as excellent, 31 per cent is good, 33 per cent is fair, 29 per cent is poor and six per cent is rated as very poor. The best lentil crops are in West Central Saskatchewan, where 30 per cent of the crop is rated as excellent and 54 per cent is rated as good. Unfortunately, even most of the crops that are looking good are still one to two weeks behind normal in development. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: ag products, ag services, agricultural products, agricultural services, Canaryseed, Canola, crop condition ratings, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, flax, lentils, precision ag, precision agronomics, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, winter cereals
The PMRA has approved an emergency registration for aerial application of Centurion EC herbicide for control for grassy weeds in broadleaf crops such as canola, flax, field peas, lentils, chickpeas and mustard. The emergency registration for Centurion applies to Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This information came as a note from the Alberta Pulse Growers last week. The emergency registration is just for this year and producers are reminded to follow the prescribed pre-harvest intervals. There are already a few products registered for aerial application for grassy weed control in broadleaf crops – products like Assure 11. However, the industry was concerned that there was limited availability of products to deal with this year’s grassy weed situation. In a normal year, in-crop weed control would be over. This year, with so many crops late and with so many weed control issues, another product that can be used aerially to control wild oats and volunteer cereals increases the options available to producers. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: aerial application, agricultural products, agricultural services, Alberta Pulse Growers, broadleaf crops, Canola, Centurion EC, chickpeas, crop protection, custom application financial solutions, Dynagra, emergency registration, fertilizers, field peas, flax, grassy weeds, lentils, Mustard, precision agronomics, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, volunteer canola, wild oats
According to the Statistics Canada seeding intentions report released yesterday, there are some dramatically different seeding intentions between the three Prairie Provinces. On lentils, the increase in Saskatchewan is pegged at 16 per cent which would increase lentil acres to 2.7 million. This is far below trade estimates. The increase in Alberta is 200 per cent – a tripling of acres. This huge increase is possible because Alberta is starting at a miniscule level. Even after the 200 per cent increase, they’ll only be at 135,000 acres. On canola, Alberta acreage is expected to be up 2 percent, while the Saskatchewan increase is forecast at 9. In Manitoba, canola acreage is actually expected to be down slightly. The situation is reversed on field peas. Alberta acreage is forecast to be unchanged. Saskatchewan field pea acreage is down 6 per cent, while Manitoba pea acreage is up a whopping 41 per cent, albeit still a pretty small number. On other crops, there’s more agreement between the provinces. Flax is down 15 to 17 per cent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Durum is down massively in Alberta (48 per cent) and Saskatchewan (32 per cent). In all three provinces, spring wheat is up a bit and barley is down a bit. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: barley, Canola, durum, field peas, flax, lentils, Prarie Provinces, Spring Wheat, Statistics Canada
The Market Analysis Group of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has come out with acreage and price predictions for the upcoming crop year. On wheat, they’re calling for Canadian acreage to be up marginally, with prices only slightly higher. Durum acres are forecast to be down by 20 per cent, but the expected price increase is only eight per cent. Barley – seeded acres down slightly, with off-board feed barley prices up slightly. The seeded acreage for oats is expected to rise by 25 per cent, while oat prices are forecast to fall by about $10 a tonne. The seeded acreage for canola is up only slightly in the Ag Canada forecast, with an increase expected in the average price. Not surprisingly, flax acres are expected to drop sharply. However, Ag Canada is forecasting a flax price improvement of nearly 30 per cent based on the assumption that EU market access issues will be resolved. On field peas, acres are forecast to be up slightly, with prices down slightly. On lentils, Ag Canada is calling for higher acres, but not nearly as high as what some analysts are predicting. Lentil prices are expected to be significantly lower. On mustard, Ag Canada is calling for acres to increase. This view isn’t shared by some other analysts. Pricewise, Ag Canada says mustard prices will decrease, but remain high by historical standards. On canaryseed, they’re calling for seeded acres to be up with the average price lower. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Ag Canada, Agri-Food Canada, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, durum, EU, flax, Market Analysis Group of Agriculture, Mustard, oats, wheat
The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture has come out with its Crop Planning Guides for 2010. Lentils are a shining star in the guides producing a sizable return over and above all the rotational expenses of growing the crop. However, the Ministry is using a price estimate of 30 cents a pound for large green lentils and 28 cents a pound for reds. Those prices are five to 10 cents above the expectations of most analysts. Even if you plug in the lower prices, lentils look pretty good compared to other options. Plus, many producers will be plugging in higher yield expectations than what the guides use. Among the cereal crops, canaryseed outshines wheat, durum and barley. However, if too many acres switch into canaryseed, the assumed new crop price of 20 cents a pound will not be realistic. In the oilseeds, the assumed flax price is $8.76 a bushel, while canola is $9.30. Those are in the general range of what analysts are predicting, but the mustard prices at 25 to 34 cents a pound are five to eight cents higher than what analysts are predicting. Every producer should be doing their own revenue and expense cropping budgets, but it’s always interesting to look at the planning guides. They’re posted on the Ministry’s website. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: barley, Canaryseed, Canola, cereal, Crop Planning Guides, cropping budget, durum, flax, lentils, Mustard, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, wheat
What numbers should a producer pencil in for crop prices in the new crop year? Many of the presentations at Crop Production Week will take a stab at answering that question. Greg Kostal of Kostal Ag Consulting in Winnipeg gave a presentation at yesterday’s Canaryseed Commission meeting comparing canaryseed to competing cereals. Kostal actually ran through all the important grains, oilseeds and specialty crops giving his projection for next crop year’s price levels. Spring wheat - $5.25 / bushel. Durum - $5 / bushel. Malting barley - $3.75 / bushel. Oats - $2.75 / bushel. Kostal is predicting both canola and flax to be in the range of $9 a bushel. He has peas at $6 a bushel, lentils at 22 cents a pound, canaryseed at 20 cents and yellow mustard at 26 cents a pound. Most of Kostal’s predictions are similar to current price levels with the exception of lentils. With a prediction of 22 cents, Kostal is expecting a dramatic price decline from the current lofty levels. A hundred things could happen to change the outlook, but the numbers are a good starting point for cropping budgets. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canaryseed Commission, Canola, Crop Production Week, durum, flax, Kostal Ag Consulting, malting barely, oats, Spring Wheat
The top nine of ’09 has a nice ring, but the big agricultural events of the year actually fall into just five broad categories. In agriculture, weather is usually a big story and it certainly was in ’09. The Saskatchewan crop had more lives than an alley cat. Despite drought, delayed maturity, the threat of frost and an extremely late harvest, the crop was above average overall and absolutely stellar in some regions. The flip side of the equation and number two on the list is the big drop in grain prices, particularly on the cereals. After record high prices in ’08, many crops have dropped back to disappointing levels. There are still some profitable crops, particularly lentils and canola, but the year ahead is uncertain. Profitability will likely depend on growing the right crops and having an astute marketing plan. The number 3 story of the year is the crop export barriers that have emerged. Europe has restricted our flax and China has restricted our canola exports. Even a visit by our Prime Minister wasn’t enough to change Chinese policy. Which commodity will be the next to run into a trade barrier? I’ll talk about number 4 and number 5 on the list on tomorrow’s commentary. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: agriculture, Canola, cereals, delayed maturity, drought, export barriers, flax, frost, grain prices, late harvest, lentils, marketing plan, trade barrier, Weather
The November estimate of field crop production from Statistics Canada was released on Friday. Here are some of the interesting numbers. The average canola yield in Saskatchewan this year is pegged at 34.8 bushels an acre. The yield difference seems to keep widening between canola and the other two main oilseeds – flax and mustard. The average flax yield was only 23.1 bushels an acre while mustard was 17.7. With the extremely late harvest, it isn’t surprising that winter wheat acreage is down, but the numbers are dramatic. Saskatchewan had 450,000 acres of winter wheat in the fall of 2008. This fall, there’s only 200,000 acres. Across Western Canada, winter wheat acreage has dropped from 1.2 million down to 650,000. The Statistics Canada data breaks down yields by crop subgroups. The yields for large green and red lentils were virtually identical at 1,390 and 1,381 pounds per acre respectively. Small green lentils were quite a bit higher at 1,510. There was a big yield difference between hairless and regular canaryseed. Hairless canaryseed is listed at 932 pounds per acre, with regular at 1,278. Little wonder that most producers still grow the regular canaryseed even though it’s very itchy to deal with. You can find the full production estimate report on the Statistics Canada website. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canaryseed, Canola, flax, lentils, Mustard, Statistics Canada, wheat
Politics has had a huge impact on grain prices this fall. First, anti-hoarding measures introduced in India caused a flood of field peas onto the market. That dropped pea prices as well as Canadian exports and both are yet to recover. Then Europe reported finding an unapproved GMO flax variety in flax shipments from Canada. That situation is hopefully working its way towards a resolution, but in the meantime the European market has been closed to Canadian flax and prices have taken a hit. There were also GMO concerns in mustard, but that was trace amounts of an approved canola trait, so the disruption seems to be minimal. The latest problem comes from China. For some reason, they’ve decided to ban any canola that tests positive for blackleg. There has always been some blackleg fungus in canola and it’s never been a problem before. Officials are trying to sort through the issue, but China is saying that it won’t take accept any canola with Blackleg after November 15 That caused a sharp dip in canola prices late last week. Another ongoing problem for canola is that the United States is stopping some canola meal shipments due to presence of salmonella. Without a market for the meal, some crushing plants have reduced their crush. Rather than just supply and demand, it’s supply, demand and politics determining our prices this fall. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: blackleg, Canola, flax, GMO, grain prices, supply and demand
