A rising tide is supposed to raise all the ships, but some grain prices have increased a lot more than others. Wheat, durum and barley price expectations took a major jump yesterday in the CWB’s newest Pool Return Outlook. Top quality spring wheat is up by nearly $1.50 a bushel. The price expectation for No. 1 CWRS with 13.5 per cent protein is now an average of nearly $6 a bushel net Saskatchewan. The PRO on top quality durum saw an increase of just over a dollar a bushel. No. 1 durum with 13 per cent protein now has a PRO of just over $5 a bushel. Malting barley is up by a dollar a bushel and now sits at $4.13 net Saskatchewan. Cereal prices still pale in comparison to canola, which has been around $10 a bushel and flax which is quoted at around $13. Price quotes approaching 30 cents a pound are now being seen for top quality large green lentils. Crops that you’d have to rate as disappointing include peas, mustard and canaryseed. Yellow pea prices remain under $5.50 a bushel, yellow mustard is only about 24 cents a pound and canaryseed is struggling to hit 20 cents. While some crop prices are in the upper range of historical bids, others are certainly not.
I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, cereal, crop protection, custom application, CWB, CWRS, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, grain prices, large green lentils, malting barley, Pool Return Outlook, precision agronomics, PRO, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, wheat, yellow mustard
Wheat, durum and designated barley prices are showing some strength, but they still aren’t very attractive. In the latest Pool Return Outlooks from the Canadian Wheat Board, there is little change in the values for the current crop year, but price projections are up for the new crop year. Wheat futures prices have increased to over $6 a bushel in recent weeks due to drought in Russia and Kazakhstan and the excess moisture problems here in Western Canada. However, wheat fundamentals remain bearish. The new crop Pool Return Outlook is up about 20 cents a bushel from last month, but that puts No. 1 CWRS wheat with 13.5 per cent protein at only about $4.50 a bushel once average Saskatchewan freight and handling is deducted. That’s about 30 cents a bushel less than the price expected in this crop year.
New crop durum has jumped up about 35 cents a bushel from last month, but that puts No. 1 durum with 13.0 per cent protein at only $4.09 a bushel. Two row designated barley for the new crop year is up 22 cents a bushel, which gives a Saskatchewan price of about $3.25 a bushel. Most other crops still have far better price prospects than the main cereals. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canadian Wheat Board, crop protection, custom application, CWRS, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, Pool Return Outlooks, precision agronomics, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, wheat
The difficult growing season in Western Canada has moved many of the grain markets, but wheat, durum and barley prices remain stubbornly depressed. In the latest Pool Return Outlook from the Canadian Wheat Board, new crop wheat with good protein is up a little bit, but durum and barley are unchanged from last month. The CWB points out that the previous two marketing years saw the largest and second largest global production of wheat on record. The 2010-11 marketing year is virtually certain to be the third largest production of all time. Canada is a huge player on the world durum market, but despite our big drop in durum acres, the overall supply of durum is expected to be adequate for the year ahead. Although world stocks are tightening due to our production drop, global values are constrained by an abundance of durum in Europe, along with the depreciation of the euro. It is also EU stocks that are overhanging the designated barley market. So while canola, lentils, canaryseed, oats and even field peas have strengthened in price in recent weeks, there isn’t much good news in the Pool Return Outlook. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canadian Wheat Board, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, CWB, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, field peas, financial solutions, grain markets, lentils, oats, Pool Return Outlook, precision agronomics, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, wheat
With the massive seeding delay, what kind of acreage shifts might there be? Will total seeded acreage in Saskatchewan be down by two million or five million acres? It’s logical to believe there will now be more barley and oats seeded since they require less days to maturity. This may come at the expense of durum and spring wheat. There may be some shift in favour of canola, but you also have to think that canola will be affected a great deal by how many acres don’t get seeded. Canaryseed is an interesting case since Saskatchewan production is the major determining factor for prices. It’s natural for producers to switch to more canaryseed in a late, wet spring and you hear about producers going that route. However, you also hear about producers who are now avoiding canaryseed because the price has dropped all the way down to 13 cents a pound and less. Mustard is a similar situation. It’s relatively short season, but prices are disappointing. Statistics Canada will release an estimate of crop area on June 23. Unfortunately, that survey is done so far in advance of the 23rd that it won’t capture all the last-minute decisions. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: acreage shifts, agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, Mustard, oats, precision agronomics, seeding delay, soil fertility, Spring Wheat, Statistics Canada, Variable Rate Technology
April and May have seen an unprecedented amount of rain over most of Saskatchewan and there’s more rain falling. Precipitation maps compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada show most of the grainbelt has already had more than two times normal precipitation this spring. Much of central Saskatchewan is at a record high. Only the southeast corner of the province is about normal for springtime precip. Everywhere else is above. The area of heaviest precipitation is within the borders of Saskatchewan. The amounts taper off as you move into Alberta and Manitoba. In this week’s crop report, the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture is rating topsoil moisture on cropland as 54 per cent adequate and 46 per cent surplus. The surplus rating will rise as the rain continues to fall. The delayed seeding will no doubt cause some alterations in seeding intentions. There may be fewer lentil acres go in the ground and durum acreage could fall even further. On the other side of the coin, it’s reasonable to now expect more barley acres as well as more canola. It will take a while to get a handle on the magnitude of any acreage shifts. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, barley, Canola, crop protection, custom application, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, lentils, precision agronomics, rain, Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology
According to the Statistics Canada seeding intentions report released yesterday, there are some dramatically different seeding intentions between the three Prairie Provinces. On lentils, the increase in Saskatchewan is pegged at 16 per cent which would increase lentil acres to 2.7 million. This is far below trade estimates. The increase in Alberta is 200 per cent – a tripling of acres. This huge increase is possible because Alberta is starting at a miniscule level. Even after the 200 per cent increase, they’ll only be at 135,000 acres. On canola, Alberta acreage is expected to be up 2 percent, while the Saskatchewan increase is forecast at 9. In Manitoba, canola acreage is actually expected to be down slightly. The situation is reversed on field peas. Alberta acreage is forecast to be unchanged. Saskatchewan field pea acreage is down 6 per cent, while Manitoba pea acreage is up a whopping 41 per cent, albeit still a pretty small number. On other crops, there’s more agreement between the provinces. Flax is down 15 to 17 per cent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Durum is down massively in Alberta (48 per cent) and Saskatchewan (32 per cent). In all three provinces, spring wheat is up a bit and barley is down a bit. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: barley, Canola, durum, field peas, flax, lentils, Prarie Provinces, Spring Wheat, Statistics Canada
The seeding intentions report from Statistics Canada comes out on Monday and everyone expects durum acreage to drop dramatically. In fact, the Canadian Wheat Board is expecting a drop of close to 25 per cent. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s even greater than that. But don’t expect American farmers to follow suit. The CWB is not expecting a decline in American durum acres due to the U.S. support programs that insulate U.S. producers from the marketplace. Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the loan rates for agricultural commodities. According to the CWB, the durum rate for North Dakota is over $6 per bushel even though the current elevator price is just over $3 per bushel. By comparison, the North Dakota loan rate for spring wheat is below $4 a bushel. A lot of American farmers won’t look at the market situation. They’ll just grow what has the best government support. A producer in North Dakota, when deciding between durum and spring wheat, will likely choose durum. That certainly won’t help reduce the worldwide durum surplus. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: American durum, Canadian Wheat Board, durum, seeding intentions report, Statistics Canada, U.S. Department of Agriculutre
Which crop will return to $7 a bushel first – durum or peas? A neighboring farmer posed that question as we shot the breeze at the local farm input dealership over the weekend. It’s an interesting way to look at the difficulties facing these two major crops. Both durum and yellow peas have shown they can go to $7 and beyond, but both are now sitting at disappointing price levels. Sales of peas to India have been slow and lots of producers are refusing to sell at prices stuck below $5. On durum, there’s little choice but to hold inventory. In the Series A contract, the |CWB accepted only 40 per cent of the durum offered. The Series B acceptance level was recently announced at just 20 per cent. Durum prices, which are ugly this crop year, are projected to go even lower in the new crop year. For many producers in the southern grain belt, durum and peas have been their two main crops. While everyone knows that Canadian durum acreage is going to drop dramatically this spring, analysts have not been predicting a big drop in pea acreage. Pea acreage may be maintained in the non-lentil growing regions, but where lentils are a viable option, there will, in my opinion, be a big shift into lentils. Going back to the original question, my guess is that peas will see $7 before durum, but I have no idea when that may be. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: CWB, durum, Indian peas, peas, Series A contracts, Series B
The first crop report of the season for the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture includes estimates of which crops are going to increase in acreage and which crops are going to decrease. This is based on information from approximately 250 volunteer crop reporters. Durum acreage in the southern and central grain belt is expected to drop by 17 or 18 per cent. With the big carryover of durum and with terrible price prospects, I wouldn’t be surprised if durum acreage dropped even more than that. The crop report is calling for lentil acreage to be up 12 to 13 per cent in southern and central areas. Again, I think the magnitude of the change is being underestimated. Saskatchewan grew 2.3 million acres of lentils last year. A 13 per cent increase would only take the acreage to 2.6 million. Most analysts have been predicting 3.0 or 3.2 million acres and I wouldn’t be surprised if lentil acreage ends up at 3.5. For canola, the crop report is calling for a 10 per cent increase in the south, a seven per cent increase in central areas and a five per cent increase in the northern grain belt. Canola has more opportunity to increase in the south – the north is pretty much maxed out on already. Flax acres are expected to drop 7 to 8 per cent across the province. The best indication of seeding intentions will be the Statistics Canada report on April 26. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canola, durum, grain belt, lentils, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, Statistics Canada
Durum is a dog, both in price and in movement. The Canadian Wheat Board accepted only 40 per cent of the durum offered under the Series A contract. Although it will be a while before we know the acceptance level under Series B, there’s likely to be 30 or 35 per cent of the durum left in the bin at the end of the crop year. I know of some producers who have been selling durum into the domestic feed market. It’s rare for top grade durum to be used for livestock feed, but some producers need the cash flow and / or bin space. For them, holding thousands or even tens of thousands of bushels is not a palatable option. Some other producers don’t want to sell at these depressed prices anyway. They’re all right with holding durum because they know that eventually the price will be a lot better. That won’t happen this crop year and it may not happen next crop year, but prices can’t stay rock bottom forever. For a majority of durum producers, the magnitude of the storage issue will depend on what happens with this year’s production. If there’s a good crop and early-season crop movement next fall is slow, there will be some big durum producers scrambling for storage. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canadian Wheat Board, domestic feed market, durum
