Last week, the price of wheat made national headlines. Drought in the Former Soviet Union has been pushing wheat prices higher. When Russia announced a temporary ban on wheat exports, the market spiked last Thursday and that’s when much of the media attention was generated. Some of the media reports felt it necessary to delve into what this means for consumers and the poor people of the world. One national television report said the price of a loaf of bread could increase by 30 cents. That’s extremely inaccurate. The Canadian Wheat Board has released some statistics to set the record straight. First of all, the value of wheat accounts for less than 10 per cent of the cost of a loaf of bread. A bushel of wheat makes about 67 standard loaves. At a wheat price of $4.50 a bushel, there is about 7 cents worth of wheat in a loaf of bread. Wheat futures on Thursday spiked to over $8 a bushel. At that price, there’s still only 12 cents worth of wheat in a loaf of bread. That five cent increase is a far cry from the 30 cents reported. It should also be noted that wheat fell back sharply on Friday and the price was little changed yesterday. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Tags: ag products, ag services, agricultural products, agricultural services, Canadian Wheat Board, crop protection, custom application, drought, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, Former Soviet Union, precision ag, precision agronomics, Russia, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, whear prices, wheat, wheat exports
The last few weeks have seen two massive precipitation events. For the time being, drought fears have been largely eliminated on the western Prairies. In some eastern regions of Saskatchewan, excess moisture is now a problem. The prospects for pasture and hay are looking good. In addition to the moisture, there has been a limited amount of frost this spring. The grass is thriving and the trees are greener, sooner than usual. Producers are itching to get seeding, but even after the rain stops its going to take a while for fields to be dry enough. Theres lots of time to get the crop in the ground, but if the weather turns wet once again, seeding delays will become worrisome. May 21 is the Saskatchewan Crop Insurance deadline for seeding chickpeas and for seeding camelina in the brown soil zone. In most years, early seeded crops end up with superior yields. Seeding this spring will become general later than average. When outfits do start rolling, producers will be pushing hard and that will put strains on all the input suppliers; everything from seed and innoculant to farm equipment mechanics. Hopefully, everyone associated with crop agriculture is well rested, because there are busy times ahead. Im Kevin Hursh.
Tags: brown soil zone, camelina, chickpeas, drought, precipitation, Saskatchewan Crop Insurance, western Praries
The top nine of ’09 has a nice ring, but the big agricultural events of the year actually fall into just five broad categories. In agriculture, weather is usually a big story and it certainly was in ’09. The Saskatchewan crop had more lives than an alley cat. Despite drought, delayed maturity, the threat of frost and an extremely late harvest, the crop was above average overall and absolutely stellar in some regions. The flip side of the equation and number two on the list is the big drop in grain prices, particularly on the cereals. After record high prices in ’08, many crops have dropped back to disappointing levels. There are still some profitable crops, particularly lentils and canola, but the year ahead is uncertain. Profitability will likely depend on growing the right crops and having an astute marketing plan. The number 3 story of the year is the crop export barriers that have emerged. Europe has restricted our flax and China has restricted our canola exports. Even a visit by our Prime Minister wasn’t enough to change Chinese policy. Which commodity will be the next to run into a trade barrier? I’ll talk about number 4 and number 5 on the list on tomorrow’s commentary. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: agriculture, Canola, cereals, delayed maturity, drought, export barriers, flax, frost, grain prices, late harvest, lentils, marketing plan, trade barrier, Weather
Over the long weekend, I toured through some of the area of west central Saskatchewan affected by drought early in the growing season. My tour included areas around Eston, Brock, Kindersley, Glidden and Eatonia. There’s a much bigger area affected and there’s a great deal of variability. In the hardest hit areas, you see lots of fields that were sprayed off in early to mid-July and the short, spindling vegetation is now brown. There are other fields that weren’t sprayed off that probably won’t see a combine. Many other fields are at variable levels of maturity, but they will produce a crop. For instance, there are durum fields with areas turning colour and areas that have just headed out. In general, these fields look a lot more promising than they did a few weeks ago. Lentil crops seem to have fared better than the cereals. Many of the lentils look quite good, although there are some red lentil crops that are painfully short and will be difficult to cut. It’s a year when crops seeded on chem fallow really stand out. You see durum crops on chem fallow that may yield 40 bushels an acre right beside durum fields seeded on stubble that will have little or no yield. Overall, the situation is not as dire as it looked a month ago, and unlike the drought of 2002, most producers in the dry zone will have combining to do this fall. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
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Tags: drought, maturity, variability
Politicians, particularly politicians in opposition, like to play cheap political games every time there’s a drought. Jack Layton stopped in Saskatoon over the weekend and he renewed his call on the federal government to come up with emergency drought money for farmers. However, the federal NDP leader doesn’t seem to have the foggiest notion for how that should happen. The best tool devised for dealing with crop failures is Crop Insurance. It provides a method to measure yield shortfalls and compensate farmers accordingly. Is it perfect? No, far from it. But the program does provide far more protection than a few years ago because the insured prices of crops are much higher. Jack Layton probably doesn’t realize it, but no one has income from this year’s crop yet. How the heck could you come up with some sort of drought payment for grain producers at this point? The more immediate problem is with cow-calf producers. Financial returns have been ugly and the drought is causing an accelerated sell off of the beef breeding herd. If Jack Layton and other politicians want to be useful, they should come up with meaningful ways to address the problems in that sector. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
Tags: crop, drought, insurance
Despite recent rain, forage is going to be in short supply this year. Early drought, cool weather and frost have taken a big toll on hay and pasture. There are no easy answers. In past droughts, governments have experimented with a number of different policies. There’s been trucking assistance to move hay supplies and assistance to move cattle to better pastures. Feed grain and forage listing services have been launched. Some of the policies that make the most sense are related to Crop Insurance. The federal and Saskatchewan governments have now acted on that front. Crop Insurance is extending the seeding deadline for greenfeed crops from June 30 to July 15. That should encourage more producers to seed greenfeed if their original crop has failed. As well, producers who have Crop Insurance will be able to seed and insure any cereal greenfeed crop. If it keeps raining, growing greenfeed may provide a revenue source for some grain producers while also increasing the feed supply. It’s not a total answer, but it’s a better strategy that subsidizing large trucking bills. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
Tags: drought, forage, greenfeed, hay, pasture
A huge amount of rain has fallen over a massive area of the Prairies. For some of the driest areas, it may be too late to salvage a reasonable crop, but for many other areas this rain has greatly improved production prospects. This huge rainfall event was correctly predicted by Drew Lerner, the president of World Weather Inc. based in Kansas. Larry Weber of Weber Commodities in Saskatoon is doing regular podcasts that are posted on the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission website. Last Thursday, the podcast featured Drew Lerner who said a significant rainfall event was coming to the dry regions of western Saskatchewan and Alberta. He said the rain would be Sunday and Monday and he conservatively estimated accumulations at half an inch to 1.5 inches. He also said there was potential for higher amounts. Drew Lerner basically nailed the prediction of a major rainfall event long before Environment Canada ever figured it out. Looking ahead, Lerner is saying that it will be important to get more rainfall over the next three weeks because by mid to late July a high pressure ridge is likely to shut down most of the precipitation events on the Prairies. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
Tags: drought, prairies, production, rainfall
A trio of problems is threatening the Saskatchewan crop – drought, frost and delayed development. Delayed development is a concern in most regions. In lots of fields, you have to get down on your hands and knees and maybe brush away some soil to find emerging plants. Some early-seeded crop has decent growth, but overall development is no where near normal. Usually by this point in June, post-emergent herbicide application is well underway. Not this year. Producers are still waiting for crops and weeds to develop. Many areas have received frost. Every year, there is frost concern somewhere and talk of reseeding. This spring, the frost damage is much more widespread and the reseeding is more than just talk. Crops in all parts of the province will need rapid development to beat the first fall frost. On top of the cold spring, west central Saskatchewan is facing a serious drought with other areas not far behind. It may seem a bit premature in June to predict how the Saskatchewan crop is going to turn out, but the odds right now are for below average production with below average quality. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
Tags: delayed development, drought, frost, herbicide, post emergent
Moisture conditions will soon become a big issue on the western side of Saskatchewan. The latest crop report from the Ministry of Agriculture shows topsoil moisture on cropland is short from North Battleford to Swift Current and west to Alberta. Two spots are mapped as very short – an area from Leader to Eatonia and another from Kindersley to Dodsland. The cool spring has masked some of the moisture shortage. The precipitation maps published by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada paint a more disturbing picture. Since April 1, most of west central Saskatchewan – everything west of a line from Saskatoon to Elbow has had less than 40 per cent of normal precipitation. The balance of the western side of the province has had between 40 and 60 per cent of normal precip. Most western regions came into the spring with poor to fair subsoil moisture, so there isn’t much reserve to draw upon. As temperatures increase to more normal readings and as the crop starts growing, precipitation will soon become critical. The lack of moisture is already doing irreparable harm to hay and pasture production. I’m Kevin Hursh.
www.hursh.ca
Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
Tags: big issue, critical, drought, hay and pasture production, lack of moisture
