Some quick, back-of-the-envelop calculations indicate that the value of the Saskatchewan crop still in the field is in the range of $1.27 billion dollars. I’ve based this on the percentage of each crop still to be harvest as estimated in yesterday’s crop report, combined with the Statistics Canada estimate of total production for each crop, along with current price levels. The biggest value by far is canola. Thirty-four per cent of the canola is still in the field and it has a value of over $600 million. The next biggest is spring wheat. Only 24 per cent of the spring wheat is still out, but that’s a lot of acres and a lot of bushels. Assuming most of the wheat is now a No. 3 grade, the value comes to about $250 million. Flax is a much smaller acreage crop, but 70 per cent of the flax is yet to be harvested. Assuming a value of $7.50 a bushel, there’s about $150 million worth still to be harvested. Forty-one per cent of the oats is still out for a value of about $80 million. Only 13 per cent of the durum is out, but even with downgrading and the low price of durum, it is worth about $68 million. Half of the canaryseed crop is out and that has a current value of about $25 million. If the unharvested crop stays out over winter, how much bushel weight loss, quality loss and rodent damage will there be? Those estimates are very tough to make. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Canola, crop conditions, durum, flax, oats, Spring Wheat
This past week marked a turning point for Saskatchewan crop conditions. With major rainfall in most regions, dry conditions are no longer the biggest concern. In the provincial crop report released yesterday, only 14 per cent of cropland is rated as short for topsoil moisture. The areas rated as very short have all but been erased. In the driest regions, drought has already exacted a toll, but in most cases further crop damage has been halted. The biggest concern now is that crops are two to three weeks behind in many areas and last week saw some freezing temperatures. According to the crop report, the Kelvington area reported frost on two nights and the thermometer fell below zero for three nights in the LeRoy area. Frost was also reported in the Glaslyn and Pierceland areas. I received an email from a producer in the Regina area reporting frost on rooftops early Thursday morning. It isn’t supposed to freeze in July. There could be crops that have their seed set messed up by this touch of frost. In general though, the crop outlook has improved dramatically over the past couple weeks. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
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Tags: crop conditions, Dynagra, frost, improved, positive, rainfall
It’s going to take awhile to figure out overall crop conditions following the weather of the past few days. There has been substantial precipitation in most southern regions of the grainbelt. Unfortunately, the moisture didn’t go very far north, largely missing the west central region of the province where soil conditions are the driest. Hay and pasture production is already doomed to be well below normal in this dry region and time is rapidly running out for grain, oilseed and specialty crops. Many parts of the northern grainbelt are also looking for rain. It’ll be interesting to see the accumulated moisture totals to determine exactly which areas received rain and which did not. The other factor is frost. Many areas dropped below freezing last week and frost hit again on the weekend. Frost in June is never good news. It’s getting late enough in the growing season that reseeding a damaged crop is not attractive. Plus, much of the frost damage seems to be in regions where the moisture is too short for establishing a new crop. The crop report from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture on Thursday should help shed light on the recent events. I’m Kevin Hursh.
www.hursh.ca
Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
Tags: crop conditions, frost damage, grain belt, rain fall
