A rising tide is supposed to raise all the ships, but some grain prices have increased a lot more than others. Wheat, durum and barley price expectations took a major jump yesterday in the CWB’s newest Pool Return Outlook. Top quality spring wheat is up by nearly $1.50 a bushel. The price expectation for No. 1 CWRS with 13.5 per cent protein is now an average of nearly $6 a bushel net Saskatchewan. The PRO on top quality durum saw an increase of just over a dollar a bushel. No. 1 durum with 13 per cent protein now has a PRO of just over $5 a bushel. Malting barley is up by a dollar a bushel and now sits at $4.13 net Saskatchewan. Cereal prices still pale in comparison to canola, which has been around $10 a bushel and flax which is quoted at around $13. Price quotes approaching 30 cents a pound are now being seen for top quality large green lentils. Crops that you’d have to rate as disappointing include peas, mustard and canaryseed. Yellow pea prices remain under $5.50 a bushel, yellow mustard is only about 24 cents a pound and canaryseed is struggling to hit 20 cents. While some crop prices are in the upper range of historical bids, others are certainly not.
I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, cereal, crop protection, custom application, CWB, CWRS, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, grain prices, large green lentils, malting barley, Pool Return Outlook, precision agronomics, PRO, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, wheat, yellow mustard
The long-anticipated Statistics Canada report on field crop production that came out on Friday has a lot of questionable numbers. As expected, there’s a big increase in Saskatchewan’s summerfallow acres due to all the land too wet to seed. Stat Can pegs summerfallow at 9.67 million acres, an increase of 5.5 million acres from last year. However, the provincial government has estimated 8 million acres were too wet to seed. On top of that, millions of acres that were seeded have been flooded out. When you compare the Stat Can estimates of seeded acres versus harvested acres, it’s tough to see where all this flooded land has gone. I also think some of the yield estimates are out to lunch. For instance, the Saskatchewan lentil yield is estimated at 1400 pounds an acre. Looking back at data all the way to 1998, that’s the highest lentil yield in all those years. I have a tough time buying that. While big yields are estimated on lentils as well as mustard and canaryseed, yield estimates are down substantially from last year in oats, barley, canola and wheat. After surveying 4,800 Saskatchewan farmers, Stat Can should have accurate production estimates, but I’m not convinced. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, field crop production, financial solutions, lentil, Mustard, oats, precision agronomics, production estimates, Saskatchewan, soil fertility, Statistics Canada, summerfallow, Variable Rate Technology, wheat
Tomorrow, August 20, is going to be a big day for Canadian grain markets. Statistics Canada will be coming out with its estimate of field crop production for each of the grains, oilseeds and specialty crops. This is a bigger deal than usual because there’s so much uncertainty over how much was actually seeded this spring and how much of what was seeded has been flooded out. Stat Can’s estimate of crop area came out on June 23, but it was based on a survey conducted weeks earlier. Producers were unable to seed all the acres they had intended, so the estimates bore little resemblance to reality. On top of that, continuous rains flooded a lot of seeded land and some crops were hit harder than others. On many crops, Western Canadian production has a big impact on prices. Tomorrow’s Stat Can report could be a market mover in canola, oats, flax, lentils, mustard and canaryseed. The price moves could be positive or negative depending upon how the Stat Can numbers vary from trade estimates. With so much uncertainty on seeded acreage, market surprises are much more likely than usual. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: ag products, ag services, agricultural products, agricultural services, Canadian grain markets, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, field crop production, financial solutions, flax, grains, lentils, mustrad, oats, oilseeds, precision agronomics, soil fertility, specialty crops, Statistics Canada, Variable Rate Technology
It’s a great year for winter cereals, not such a great year for canola, flax and canaryseed. The crop condition ratings in this week’s crop report from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture show that winter wheat and fall rye and looking great. Winter wheat is rated as 33 per cent excellent and 50 per cent good. Only 3 per cent is poor. By contrast, 23 per cent of the canola in the province is rated as fair, 13 per cent is rated as poor and 3 per cent is very poor. Canola is the crop with the lowest ratings, but it’s followed closely by flax, canaryseed and barley. The crop report also provides ratings for each region of the province. The northwestern region of the grain belt has the best crops overall. Canola is particularly strong in the northwest. The poorest crop ratings are in the northeastern grain belt. In that region, only one per cent of the canola is rated as excellent, 31 per cent is good, 33 per cent is fair, 29 per cent is poor and six per cent is rated as very poor. The best lentil crops are in West Central Saskatchewan, where 30 per cent of the crop is rated as excellent and 54 per cent is rated as good. Unfortunately, even most of the crops that are looking good are still one to two weeks behind normal in development. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: ag products, ag services, agricultural products, agricultural services, Canaryseed, Canola, crop condition ratings, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, flax, lentils, precision ag, precision agronomics, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, winter cereals
The Canadian Food Inspection Agency has received notification from Mexico that all imports of Canadian canaryseed will be held and tested for the presence of quarantine weed seeds. Specifically, Mexico is looking for wild buckwheat and they have indicated that the detection of just one wild buckwheat seed will result in rejection of the canaryseed shipment. The CFIA tests every consignment for weed seeds prior to issuing a phytosanitary certificate, but Canada won’t be able to meet the zero tolerance Mexico is now apparently enforcing. There are herbicides that control wild buckwheat in canaryseed, but there are still seeds that show up in the production. Canadian cleaning plants remove weed seeds including wild buckwheat, but the cleaning isn’t perfect. Often there are one or two and even a dozen wild buckwheat seeds showing up in a 100 gram sample. Mexico is an important market for Canadian canaryseed, the vast majority of which is produced in Saskatchewan. Until Mexican officials can be convinced that there zero tolerance is unworkable, it appears that market will be closed. We’ve exported canaryseed to Mexico for many years and it isn’t clear why this is now a problem. This is another example of how a zero tolerance can mess up market access. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, Canadian canaryseed, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Canaryseed, CFIA, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, exports, fertilizers, financial solutions, Mexico, phytosanitary certificate, precision agronomics, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, weed seeds, wild buckwheat
The difficult growing season in Western Canada has moved many of the grain markets, but wheat, durum and barley prices remain stubbornly depressed. In the latest Pool Return Outlook from the Canadian Wheat Board, new crop wheat with good protein is up a little bit, but durum and barley are unchanged from last month. The CWB points out that the previous two marketing years saw the largest and second largest global production of wheat on record. The 2010-11 marketing year is virtually certain to be the third largest production of all time. Canada is a huge player on the world durum market, but despite our big drop in durum acres, the overall supply of durum is expected to be adequate for the year ahead. Although world stocks are tightening due to our production drop, global values are constrained by an abundance of durum in Europe, along with the depreciation of the euro. It is also EU stocks that are overhanging the designated barley market. So while canola, lentils, canaryseed, oats and even field peas have strengthened in price in recent weeks, there isn’t much good news in the Pool Return Outlook. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canadian Wheat Board, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, CWB, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, field peas, financial solutions, grain markets, lentils, oats, Pool Return Outlook, precision agronomics, soil fertility, Variable Rate Technology, wheat
What a waste. The seeded acreage report released yesterday by Statistics Canada has almost no value. More than 7,500 Saskatchewan farmers were surveyed for the report, but the survey took place from May 25 to June 3. At the time, seeding was 67 per cent complete and Stats Can just assumed that farmers would end up seeding what they were planning. Instead, seeding progress stalled at about 75 per cent. The Stats Can report says Saskatchewan farmers seeded a record area of lentils and canola, while also increasing the acreage of crops like canaryseed. In reality, the report tells us nothing. Canaryseed, lentil and canola prices wouldn’t be rising if the trade actually believed that acreages had hit the targets. There’s far too much time between when farmers are surveyed and when the information is released. That’s an ongoing problem with the Stats Can reports. And in this case, Stats Can didn’t anticipate very well. Farmers should have been asked what crops they still had left to seed. With the addition of that information, a much more accurate picture of seeded acreage could now be generated. Instead, all the effort has been wasted. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, lentils, precision agronomics, seeded acreage, seeding progress, soil fertility, Statistics Canada, Variable Rate Technology
All the unseeded acreage coupled with concerns about overall production levels is shaking up some of the markets.
Canola has strengthened to the $9 a bushel range. With canola being short millions of acres, the domestic crushing plants, including the two new ones in Yorkton, must be wondering where they’re going to find enough product to keep busy. Of course, canola can’t get totally out of whack with soybean prices, so there is a limit to how high canola prices can go.
On crops like lentils and canaryseed, buyers are now calling farmers rather than the other way around and there have been some price increases. Canaryseed that was as low at 12.5 cents a pound a few weeks ago is now being quoted at around 15 cents. There is at least one new crop canaryseed bid at over 15 cents.
There’s also a new crop bid of 24 cents for No. 2 large green lentils. That’s probably the best new crop bid of the season. A lot of contracts were signed earlier at 23, 22, 21 and even 20 cents.
It’s an extremely tough year for estimating potential production levels, but the marketplace is worried about shortfalls. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: agricultural products, agricultural services, Canaryseed, Canola, commodities, crop protection, custom application, domestic crushing plants, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, lentils, precision agronomics, production levels, soil fertility, unseeded acreage, Variable Rate Technology
With the massive seeding delay, what kind of acreage shifts might there be? Will total seeded acreage in Saskatchewan be down by two million or five million acres? It’s logical to believe there will now be more barley and oats seeded since they require less days to maturity. This may come at the expense of durum and spring wheat. There may be some shift in favour of canola, but you also have to think that canola will be affected a great deal by how many acres don’t get seeded. Canaryseed is an interesting case since Saskatchewan production is the major determining factor for prices. It’s natural for producers to switch to more canaryseed in a late, wet spring and you hear about producers going that route. However, you also hear about producers who are now avoiding canaryseed because the price has dropped all the way down to 13 cents a pound and less. Mustard is a similar situation. It’s relatively short season, but prices are disappointing. Statistics Canada will release an estimate of crop area on June 23. Unfortunately, that survey is done so far in advance of the 23rd that it won’t capture all the last-minute decisions. I’m Kevin Hursh.
DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.
Tags: acreage shifts, agricultural products, agricultural services, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, crop protection, custom application, durum, Dynagra, fertilizers, financial solutions, Mustard, oats, precision agronomics, seeding delay, soil fertility, Spring Wheat, Statistics Canada, Variable Rate Technology
The Market Analysis Group of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has come out with acreage and price predictions for the upcoming crop year. On wheat, they’re calling for Canadian acreage to be up marginally, with prices only slightly higher. Durum acres are forecast to be down by 20 per cent, but the expected price increase is only eight per cent. Barley – seeded acres down slightly, with off-board feed barley prices up slightly. The seeded acreage for oats is expected to rise by 25 per cent, while oat prices are forecast to fall by about $10 a tonne. The seeded acreage for canola is up only slightly in the Ag Canada forecast, with an increase expected in the average price. Not surprisingly, flax acres are expected to drop sharply. However, Ag Canada is forecasting a flax price improvement of nearly 30 per cent based on the assumption that EU market access issues will be resolved. On field peas, acres are forecast to be up slightly, with prices down slightly. On lentils, Ag Canada is calling for higher acres, but not nearly as high as what some analysts are predicting. Lentil prices are expected to be significantly lower. On mustard, Ag Canada is calling for acres to increase. This view isn’t shared by some other analysts. Pricewise, Ag Canada says mustard prices will decrease, but remain high by historical standards. On canaryseed, they’re calling for seeded acres to be up with the average price lower. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Ag Canada, Agri-Food Canada, barley, Canaryseed, Canola, durum, EU, flax, Market Analysis Group of Agriculture, Mustard, oats, wheat
