DynAgra Blog
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Reporting on Agriculture in Western Canada
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07 Sep 10 CWB director elections

Canadian Wheat Board elections are being held this fall in the odd-numbered districts. An interesting race is shaping up in District 3, which is southwest Saskatchewan and part of southeast Alberta. Two candidates are throwing their hats into the ring and more will no doubt follow. District 3 has long been represented by Larry Hill of Swift Current, a strong supporter of the CWB’s single desk. Hill has always won by a wide margin, but he has served the maximum number of terms and now the district is wide open. The two candidates who have announced their intentions to run are both single desk supporters, but they differ in their approach. Stewart Wells of Swift Current is a former president of the National Farmers Union. Bright and articulate, Wells hardly ever has anything negative to say about the CWB. He will certainly have a lot of name recognition. The second candidate is Brett Meinert of Shaunavon. Although a supporter of the CWB’s marketing functions, Meinert promises to address the industry and producer frustrations that arise in dealing with the CWB. Meinert has served on the board of South West Terminal and as president of the Inland Terminal Association of Canada. With two high profile single desk supporters in the running, it’ll be interesting to see who comes forward to represent the dual marketing viewpoint. I’m Kevin Hursh.

DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.

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24 Aug 10 Feed barley exports at strong prices

There are major developments in the feed barley market. Drought in Russia and Ukraine and restricted exports from those major feed barley suppliers has meant a significant increase in offshore prices. Suddenly, the export market can compete with what Canadian producers are receiving for feed barley in the domestic market. Our domestic livestock industry is going to have to pay more or else substitute barley with corn or Distillers Dried Grains from the U.S. The Canadian Wheat Board says it has sold over 200,000 tonnes of export feed barley in recent weeks. Producers can enter into three way Guaranteed Delivery Contracts involving the CWB and a grain company. The CWB has a guaranteed in-store price and a delivery period. Producers negotiate the freight and handling with the grain company. The CWB says the most recent contracts have had a guaranteed price of $215 a tonne basis Vancouver. By my arithmetic, that should equate to prices of well over $3 a bushel in Saskatchewan. The CWB says contract prices have been continually increasing as new tenders are awarded. Producers can call the CWB to find out more or call elevator companies to see if they’re participating in any tenders. I’m Kevin Hursh.

DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.

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10 Aug 10 Bread price fallacy

Last week, the price of wheat made national headlines. Drought in the Former Soviet Union has been pushing wheat prices higher. When Russia announced a temporary ban on wheat exports, the market spiked last Thursday and that’s when much of the media attention was generated. Some of the media reports felt it necessary to delve into what this means for consumers and the poor people of the world. One national television report said the price of a loaf of bread could increase by 30 cents. That’s extremely inaccurate. The Canadian Wheat Board has released some statistics to set the record straight. First of all, the value of wheat accounts for less than 10 per cent of the cost of a loaf of bread. A bushel of wheat makes about 67 standard loaves. At a wheat price of $4.50 a bushel, there is about 7 cents worth of wheat in a loaf of bread. Wheat futures on Thursday spiked to over $8 a bushel. At that price, there’s still only 12 cents worth of wheat in a loaf of bread. That five cent increase is a far cry from the 30 cents reported. It should also be noted that wheat fell back sharply on Friday and the price was little changed yesterday. I’m Kevin Hursh.

DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.

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06 Aug 10 Wheat prices soar

Wheat futures prices have been soaring higher due to drought in the Former Soviet Union as well as Canada’s excess moisture problems. The rising market gained momentum yesterday with the announcement by Russia that it’s placing a temporary ban on wheat exports. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed yesterday at $8.29 a bushel. Back in June, the price was only about $4.50. Market analysts say the world stocks to use ratio for wheat isn’t really that short, certainly not as short as a couple years ago, but wheat is zooming higher anyway. Futures have now reached a 23-month high. No one can predict with any certainty where wheat prices will go in the weeks and months ahead. Maybe they’ll go higher. Maybe they’ll drop back. The Canadian Wheat Board is alerting producers that there are pricing options available to lock in some of the current rally. If the rally is short-lived, it won’t be reflected in the annual pooled price. Right now, with a Fixed Price Contract, producers can lock in a wheat price that’s about $1.50 a bushel higher than the current Pool Return Outlook. The CWB has reps available to explain the various pricing options. I’m Kevin Hursh.

DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.

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23 Jul 10 Cereals are still dogs

Wheat, durum and designated barley prices are showing some strength, but they still aren’t very attractive. In the latest Pool Return Outlooks from the Canadian Wheat Board, there is little change in the values for the current crop year, but price projections are up for the new crop year. Wheat futures prices have increased to over $6 a bushel in recent weeks due to drought in Russia and Kazakhstan and the excess moisture problems here in Western Canada. However, wheat fundamentals remain bearish. The new crop Pool Return Outlook is up about 20 cents a bushel from last month, but that puts No. 1 CWRS wheat with 13.5 per cent protein at only about $4.50 a bushel once average Saskatchewan freight and handling is deducted. That’s about 30 cents a bushel less than the price expected in this crop year.

New crop durum has jumped up about 35 cents a bushel from last month, but that puts No. 1 durum with 13.0 per cent protein at only $4.09 a bushel. Two row designated barley for the new crop year is up 22 cents a bushel, which gives a Saskatchewan price of about $3.25 a bushel. Most other crops still have far better price prospects than the main cereals. I’m Kevin Hursh.

DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.

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25 Jun 10 Disappointing PRO

 

The difficult growing season in Western Canada has moved many of the grain markets, but wheat, durum and barley prices remain stubbornly depressed. In the latest Pool Return Outlook from the Canadian Wheat Board, new crop wheat with good protein is up a little bit, but durum and barley are unchanged from last month. The CWB points out that the previous two marketing years saw the largest and second largest global production of wheat on record. The 2010-11 marketing year is virtually certain to be the third largest production of all time. Canada is a huge player on the world durum market, but despite our big drop in durum acres, the overall supply of durum is expected to be adequate for the year ahead. Although world stocks are tightening due to our production drop, global values are constrained by an abundance of durum in Europe, along with the depreciation of the euro. It is also EU stocks that are overhanging the designated barley market. So while canola, lentils, canaryseed, oats and even field peas have strengthened in price in recent weeks, there isn’t much good news in the Pool Return Outlook. I’m Kevin Hursh.

 

DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.

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21 Jun 10 Producer control of the CWB

Saskatchewan Liberal MP Ralph Goodale is trying to get legislation passed that would give farmers more control over the Canadian Wheat Board. Goodale was the Minister Responsible for the CWB for many years and he brought in sweeping changes that were meant to make farmers the masters of the CWB’s destiny. However, recent court decisions have determined that previous legislation didn’t go quite far enough. When push comes to shove, the federal government can still call the shots on many aspects of CWB operations. Farmers are badly divided on the issue of the single desk monopoly, but a strong majority agrees that the CWB should be an organization controlled by farmers and not government. It should be farmers charting the course of their marketing agency, whether that means a continuation of the status quo or an opening up of the marketplace. Goodale is on the right track. It’s just too bad he didn’t get it right in the first place. Of course, the odds of him getting major changes while in opposition would seem remote at best. I’m Kevin Hursh.

DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.

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17 May 10 Who should vote in CWB elections?

The federal government has introduced an act to change the voters list for Canadian Wheat Board elections. The Grain Growers of Canada, representing a broad cross-section of grain groups, is applauding the proposed changes. Groups such as the National Farmers Union and Friends of the Canadian Wheat Board are calling it another attack on the CWB. There have been no shortage of attacks by the feds and Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz, but these proposed changes are reasonable. The legislation would give voting rights to those who produce 40 tonnes of grain and those who are entitled to 40 tonnes under a crop-share arrangement. Forty tonnes is only about 1,500 bushels. If you have less than that, you shouldn’t get a vote. Other grains besides wheat, durum and barley are named under the Canadian Wheat Board Act, so a farmer could be producing 40 tonnes of canola and still get a vote. The critics are all over this saying that if you haven’t been delivering to the board you shouldn’t be voting in board elections. Having the CWB affects all aspects of the grain business, so every significant grain producer should get a vote. However, the proposed changes may not pass in time for the next CWB election anyway unless there’s some cooperation in the House of Commons. I’m Kevin Hursh.

DynAgra, an independent Western Canada-based Company, is dedicated to providing growers with the tools to manage the risk and maximize the profitability of their farm business through the continued innovation of agricultural products and services. We are committed to developing and providing growers with the latest in precision agronomics, variable rate technology, soil fertility, crop protection, fertilizers, custom application and financial solutions.

 

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23 Apr 10 Don’t expect U.S. durum acres to drop

The seeding intentions report from Statistics Canada comes out on Monday and everyone expects durum acreage to drop dramatically. In fact, the Canadian Wheat Board is expecting a drop of close to 25 per cent. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s even greater than that. But don’t expect American farmers to follow suit. The CWB is not expecting a decline in American durum acres due to the U.S. support programs that insulate U.S. producers from the marketplace. Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the loan rates for agricultural commodities. According to the CWB, the durum rate for North Dakota is over $6 per bushel even though the current elevator price is just over $3 per bushel. By comparison, the North Dakota loan rate for spring wheat is below $4 a bushel. A lot of American farmers won’t look at the market situation. They’ll just grow what has the best government support. A producer in North Dakota, when deciding between durum and spring wheat, will likely choose durum. That certainly won’t help reduce the worldwide durum surplus. I’m Kevin Hursh.

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01 Apr 10 Durum strategies

Durum is a dog, both in price and in movement. The Canadian Wheat Board accepted only 40 per cent of the durum offered under the Series A contract. Although it will be a while before we know the acceptance level under Series B, there’s likely to be 30 or 35 per cent of the durum left in the bin at the end of the crop year. I know of some producers who have been selling durum into the domestic feed market. It’s rare for top grade durum to be used for livestock feed, but some producers need the cash flow and / or bin space. For them, holding thousands or even tens of thousands of bushels is not a palatable option. Some other producers don’t want to sell at these depressed prices anyway. They’re all right with holding durum because they know that eventually the price will be a lot better. That won’t happen this crop year and it may not happen next crop year, but prices can’t stay rock bottom forever. For a majority of durum producers, the magnitude of the storage issue will depend on what happens with this year’s production. If there’s a good crop and early-season crop movement next fall is slow, there will be some big durum producers scrambling for storage. I’m Kevin Hursh.

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