As farmers, we don’t talk about it as much as we should, but passing the farm along to the next generation is an important goal for a lot of producers. John Phipps, the American agricultural journalist and farmer who spoke at the Crop Production Week Special Session Wednesday evening talked quite a bit about family. At the age of 35 in the midst of a successful professional career, John’s son decided he wanted to farm. Their philosophy is to farm within their specific county in Illinois. They don’t chase land in other counties, but if land comes for sale or rent next to them, they’ll pay a premium to secure it. After the presentation by John Phipps as everyone was standing around and talking, I visited with a farmer from east central Saskatchewan who beamed with pride over the fact that his kids are all in the province and several are involved in the farm. Agriculture is often a difficult business. It’s easy to get depressed and negative. Those who soldier on through good times and bad are often motivated by what they hope to pass along to the next generation and the generation after that. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: agriculture, farming, succession
The top nine of ’09 has a nice ring, but the big agricultural events of the year actually fall into just five broad categories. In agriculture, weather is usually a big story and it certainly was in ’09. The Saskatchewan crop had more lives than an alley cat. Despite drought, delayed maturity, the threat of frost and an extremely late harvest, the crop was above average overall and absolutely stellar in some regions. The flip side of the equation and number two on the list is the big drop in grain prices, particularly on the cereals. After record high prices in ’08, many crops have dropped back to disappointing levels. There are still some profitable crops, particularly lentils and canola, but the year ahead is uncertain. Profitability will likely depend on growing the right crops and having an astute marketing plan. The number 3 story of the year is the crop export barriers that have emerged. Europe has restricted our flax and China has restricted our canola exports. Even a visit by our Prime Minister wasn’t enough to change Chinese policy. Which commodity will be the next to run into a trade barrier? I’ll talk about number 4 and number 5 on the list on tomorrow’s commentary. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: agriculture, Canola, cereals, delayed maturity, drought, export barriers, flax, frost, grain prices, late harvest, lentils, marketing plan, trade barrier, Weather
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has published a statistical overview of the Canadian pulse and specialty crop industries. On a number of commodities, Canada dominates world trade. Based on data from 2008, Canada’s share of world dry pea exports is an impressive 54 per cent. The next largest pea exporter is the U.S. at 16per cent of the world market. Our biggest customer by far for peas is India. Canada has 68 per cent of the world trade in lentils and by far the biggest export destination is Turkey. By comparison, the U.S. has only 10 per cent of the lentil export market. In canaryseed, Canada accounts for 83 per cent of world exports. The next biggest exporter is Belgium followed by Argentina and Hungary. Mexico and Brazil are our two biggest customers for canaryseed. Canada’s share of world mustard seed exports is 51 per cent. The other significant exporters include Germany, India, Netherlands and Ukraine. The United States is the biggest customer for our mustard followed by Belgium and Germany. When you add up Canadian sales of lentils, peas, mustard and canaryseed for 2008, the total comes to $1.9 billion. Most of that comes from Saskatchewan. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Tags: Agri-Food Canada, agriculture, Canaryseed, dry pea, lentils, specialty crop
The market outlook in the pork industry continues to be troubling. Prices are weak, producers are losing money on every hog going to market, and there’s no end in sight. Brad Marceniuk, a livestock economist with the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture puts together a regular Hog Market Update. In the most recent report, he notes that reduced pork demand in the United States, due mainly to lower American exports has weighed heavily on the market. China and Russia are buying a lot less and this reduction in demand seems to have started before the H1N1 outbreak. Lean hog futures prices continue to be well below prices earlier in the year. Based on the futures market, hog prices are going to stay at rock bottom levels for the remainder of this year and for the first quarter of 2010. In Canada, we’re now on our second cull program. The Americans have not been cutting their herd. Total Canadian hog inventory peaked in 2005. Since that time, it has dropped by 20 per cent. The decline is much more dramatic in Saskatchewan. Since 2005, Saskatchewan’s total hog inventory has declined by nearly 42 per cent. It’s amazing that any producers are left in the business after years of losses and no light at the end of the tunnel. I’m Kevin Hursh. DynAgra, your independent ag retailer, is proud to support the pork industry.
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Kevin Hursh PAg CAC
Tags: agriculture, market, pork, prices
To which view of the future of agriculture do you subscribe? View number one: the growing world population and increasing prosperity will lead to a long-term uptrend in agricultural prices. View number two: on average, production will exceed demand and low prices will be the norm most of the time. You’d think that experts could analyze the situation and the trends and come to agreement. That’s not the case. A just-released report by the experts at Deutsche Bank Group subscribes to the theory that there will be a 50 per cent increase in food demand by the year 2050 with nine billion people inhabiting the earth. Meeting this demand, they say, will require huge agricultural investments. On the other side of the debate are experts such as Daryll Ray, who holds the Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy at the University of Tennessee. In a recent opinion piece in the Manitoba Cooperator, Ray says overproduction relative to demand will likely be the overriding problem for major crop markets during all, or most, of our lifetimes. Overproduction has been the norm more often than not during the past 30 years. For what it’s worth, I subscribe to the view that we’ll see more shortages and better prices more often in the years to come. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
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Tags: agriculture, demand, food, future
There was a time when agriculture dominated the provincial economy. These days the value of agricultural production is about the same as the value of mining. Total farm cash receipts, the money from selling grain and livestock as well as money received from government programs, totaled a record $9.4 billion in 2008. The Saskatchewan mining industry also had a record year in ‘08, particularly for potash, resulting in total production valued at $9.7 billion. The stats for 2009 are likely to see a setback. Many grain prices are not as buoyant as last year and most of the western half of Saskatchewan is facing the threat of drought. In the mining industry, lower sales numbers are also being projected, so it isn’t only agriculture that’s cyclical. Over the medium term, watch for agriculture to be a re-emerging giant in the provincial economy. Growing economies in China and India point to an ever-increasing demand for food from customers that have the money to pay for it. As the world economy comes out of recession, and as oil prices rise, expect to see renewed strength in grains. If the stars align as it appears they might, the province could see an agricultural renaissance. I’m Kevin Hursh.
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Kevin Hursh, PAg, CAC
Tags: agriculture, domination, provincial economy, renaissance
